Despite some tentative overtures towards peace, the Anglophone insurgency in Northwest and Southwest regions is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, while the risk of kidnapping and broader commercial disruption will become more prominent.
A new generation of Islamist militants is seeking to undermine a recent recovery of the tourism sector and to frustrate Kenya’s economic trajectory by staging a high-profile attack on expatriates and foreign businesses.
Outbreaks of violent unrest are indicative of widening political divisions and systemic economic malaise, which the current administration lacks the political clout to resolve. The risk of both civil and military unrest will rise over the next few months undermining political stability and economic recovery.
Zambia’s new tax regime is causing smelters to close and motivating mining companies to lay off workers and scrap investment plans. Worse is to come as a harmful new sales tax is due to take effect, while massive VAT rebate arrears are arbitrarily written off.
If Congo’s election results are confirmed, the risk of post-election violence is significantly mitigated, while incoming president Tshisekedi may be more open to amend controversial policies in the mining sector. However, a suspected power-sharing pact indicates that the political status quo will at least initially remain unaltered.
Angola’s economy will recover in 2019 on the prospect of rising oil production levels and IMF credit support; however, the country’s banks urgently require a round of consolidation to improve asset-quality and foreign-exchange risks.
Incoming president Andry Rajoelina will enjoy greater political capital in his second stint at the helm, while his government is at least initially expected to follow an IMF programme as a roadmap for reform. Yet there are growing concerns over corruption, state interventionism, and overspending.
A failed military coup is indicative of broad socio-economic and political frustration with Gabon’s leadership, which has been weakened by the suspected incapacitation of its strongman president. While the prospect of civil and military unrest remains likely, any further coup attempts are unlikely to succeed.
Despite widespread intimidation and electoral manipulation, the ruling coalition may not have sufficiently rigged the presidential ballot in its favour and is now deploying fresh delaying tactics to prepare its security response and to appease international partners.
Despite recent government claims to the contrary, the threat of terrorism in Egypt has not subsided. The withdrawal of security assets from terrorism-embattled regions is providing Islamist militants a chance to recuperate and recalibrate their armed insurgency.
- EXX Africa analysis on the commercial impact of the #Kenya terror attack is cited by AFP news agency
- CAMEROON: KIDNAP RISKS AND COMMERCIAL DISRUPTION INTENSIFY ANGLOPHONE INSURGENCY
- EXX Africa assesses the potential economic impact of the #Kenya terror attacks in #Bloomberg
- AFRICA INVESTMENT RISK REPORT 2019
- KENYA: ISLAMIST MILITANTS STRIKE AT THE HEART OF A VULNERABLE ECONOMY