The start of the rainy season augurs a healthy crop for the world’s top cocoa producer and the country’s economic trajectory is set to remain stable at least in the one-year outlook. But political tremors risk shaking up Cote d’Ivoire’s relative stability that has remained intact since the 2011 civil war.
Less than two months out from hotly contested elections, South Africa faces some of its worst power outages in years with dire implications for the economic recovery. President Ramaphosa is walking a political tightrope to implement his power sector reform plan while trying not to alienate labour allies.
The probability of an opposition victory in upcoming elections is increasing, which raises the risk of corruption probes and contract renegotiations after the polls. However, the incumbent will use new legislation and control over security forces to push back against the opposition’s momentum, thus raising the risk of political violence in coming months.
Burkina Faso has experienced an alarming increase in the geographic spread, tempo, and complexity of attacks by Islamist militants in the past year. This trajectory of violence, in a country which appeared only five years ago to be insulated from wider regional security issues, is concerning, as the local political and security apparatus seem ill-equipped to counter the threat.
The government is preparing to issue more Eurobonds once Ghana departs the IMF programme. While new loans would finance the budget deficit and fund expansive spending programmes to boost liquidity in the banking sector and SME sector, there remain concerns over revenue collection and debt servicing.
The potential resolution of a years-long dispute over the world’s largest untapped iron ore resource does not immediately signal its development due to the project’s massive infrastructure costs. Despite a booming bauxite and gold sector, populist sentiment ahead of the 2020 elections will increase risk of contract frustration and industrial action.
Facing the most significant outbreak of unrest in almost a decade, the Algerian government is under pressure to part ways with its long-standing president. In light of the enduring state of political paralysis and with no credible opposition as an alternative, we assess the possible trajectory of the protest movement and the potential for violent escalation.
The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an enigmatic and insular Islamic militant group in the eastern DRC, has risen in prominence with civilian massacres and large-scale attacks on government troops and UN peacekeepers in Beni territory since 2016. With the group now infamously known as the deadliest armed group in the country, following the deaths of over 200 people in 2018, we explore the threat to commercial operations in the region.
The central bank has warned that mounting debt servicing costs risk depleting international reserves at an accelerated rate. However, there is no sign that the government is willing to slow debt accumulation or crack down on state corruption. While a default scenario remains unlikely, the pathways for recourse are narrowing.
Despite securing a comfortable re-election victory in last month’s elections, President Macky Sall’s perceived authoritarian streak will drive continued risk of unrest in his second term. However, the economic outlook and prospect for further business-minded reform remains bright, at least for now.
- ALGERIA: DESPITE CONCESSIONS, THE POLITICAL ELITE DIGS IN FOR THE LONG HAUL
- COTE D’IVOIRE: HEALTHY COCOA CROP BOOSTS ECONOMIC TRAJECTORY DESPITE POLITICAL TREMORS
- SOUTH AFRICA: KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON AS ELECTIONS APPROACH
- EXX Africa participated at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk – Africa conference last week in Cape Town.
- UGANDA: TRADE DISPUTE AND OPPOSITION TRIAL DESTABILISE OUTLOOK TOWARDS 2021 ELECTIONS