BURKINA FASO

RISK RATING
Severe
Default High Risk Score 8.50
Normal Average 6.05
Weighted Average 6.13
RISK RATING HISTORY
RISK RATING SCALE

Risk Rating Scale

Severe: 8.0 to 10
High: 6.0 to 7.9
Elevated: 4.0 to 5.9
Moderate: 2.0 to 3.9
Low: 0.0 to 1.9
EXCHANGE RATE
Country Outlook

President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré won a second term in office at the 2020 elections through gerrymandering to disenfranchise ethnic Peul and opposition supporters, and by recreating an ethnic Mossi alliance alongside government-backed militias. Ethnic antagonism will intensify in coming years and increasingly drive the Islamist insurgency and failing counterinsurgency, and thus stall economic recovery. While the country has remained politically stable since the 2014 uprising that resulted in the overthrow of former president Blaise Compaoré, pressure has mounted as socio-economic conditions have worsened, particularly in light of COVID-19, and the security environment has deteriorated. With the COVID-19 crisis diverting already limited government attention and resources, the militant threat is likely to continue to expand in northern and eastern parts of the country. There is an enduring threat of terrorist attacks and kidnapping posed to the commercial sector, which remains focused on foreign mining operations in remote areas.

  • President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré won the 2020 presidential elections with almost 58 percent of the vote, as the incumbent and his administration passed policies that ultimately favoured his re-election by marginalising potentially critical voices. In his first term, President Kaboré failed to address many of the grievances that resulted in the ousting of Blaise Compaoré’s long-time administration in 2014. Mounting insecurity, entrenched corruption, a botched response to the novel coronavirus pandemic, and weak economic management made his re-election seem unlikely without extensive vote tampering. Although the ruling MPP party does not have a legislative majority, it can count on the support of the NTD party in parliament to pass major legislation and budgets.
  • Burkina Faso’s security environment has undergone a marked deterioration in recent years. Since the start of 2018, there has been a surge in militancy-related violence across the country. This rise in violence has been accompanied by a corresponding increase in criminality, including the proliferation of organised criminal groups, often closely linked to Islamist militant organisations. While the bulk of the violence has been concentrated in the Sahel and Est administrative regions in the north-east and east of the country, militancy-related incidents have been recorded in all but two of Burkina Faso’s 13 regions. As such, a state of emergency currently remains in place in six of the country’s 13 regions. The efforts of the Burkinabé security forces, alongside those of a range of regional and international counter-terrorism task forces, have been insufficient to reverse, or even contain the spread of violence.
  • A fragile economy is exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of restrictive measures. Market closures, rising food prices, and limited food aid delivery have contributed to already prevalent food insecurity issues across the country. Moreover, countrywide curfews and restrictions on the operations of markets have had a significant impact on worker livelihoods in the informal sector, which accounts for an estimated 90 percent of employment in Burkina Faso. This is likely to exacerbate chronic inequality and socio-economic tensions, particularly in vulnerable and marginalised areas of society – feeding into the risk of civil unrest.
CUMULATIVE AND DAILY COVID-19 INFECTIONS AND DEATH RATE
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | DATAMAPPER
Risk Perils
Political Instability
7.0
Expropriation, Nationalisation, Confiscation & Deprivation
5.0
Contract Frustration & Breach
5.0
Taxation
5.0
Bribery & Corruption
6.0
Regulatory Burden
6.0
Strikes, Riots & Civil Commotion
6.0
Security
8.5
Sovereign Default
5.0
Economic Volatiliy
7.0

Risk Rating Scale (small)

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