CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

RISK RATING
Severe
Default High Risk Score 8.00
Normal Average 6.90
Weighted Average 6.85
RISK RATING HISTORY
RISK RATING SCALE

Risk Rating Scale

Severe: 8.0 to 10
High: 6.0 to 7.9
Elevated: 4.0 to 5.9
Moderate: 2.0 to 3.9
Low: 0.0 to 1.9
EXCHANGE RATE
Country Outlook

A rebel offensive to capture Bangui has stalled due to Russian and Rwandan military support for the newly re-elected government. However, in coming months the capital will be choked by armed groups that occupy the main supply routes for food and fuel imports, thus threatening serious shortages and driving insecurity on the city’s fringes that could yet topple the government. While the country’s main armed groups have signed an African Union (AU)-brokered peace accord in Khartoum, tensions remain high in the Central African Republic (CAR) with little indication of improvement in the country’s security and political environment. Approximately 70 percent of the country remains under the control of militias who continue to exploit local populations and natural resources for their own gain, violence is on the rise in the provinces, and weapons continue to flow illegally into the country and into the hands of armed groups.

  • President Faustin-Archange Touad√©ra won re-election at the December 2020 elections. However, the opposition claimed that voting was unable to take place in many areas since two-thirds of the country is controlled by armed groups, and many voters were unable to cast their ballots. Rwandan, Russian, and MINUSCA support for the government and the elections process will be instrumental to avoid a military coup in Bangui or a successful rebel advance on the capital. The CAR government is further boosted by support from key allies such as France, the US, and Russia, as well as the United Nations and African Union. However, an effective chokehold on Bangui that creates import shortages would drive significant unrest risks and test the loyalty of segments of the security forces.
  • The 2019 Khartoum peace deal that was signed between the government and 14 armed groups is fast unravelling. Ahead of the 2020 election, rebel groups collaborated to stage an offensive on Bangui. However, this offensive was thwarted by MINUSCA support for the national security forces, as well as the arrival Russian armed operatives and Rwandan soldiers in the capital. Swift Russian and Rwandan deployments were not anticipated by the rebel groups and instead the armed groups have changed strategy to cut off Bangui from the rest of the country and choke its resources, such as food and fuel imports which mostly travel by land through rebel-held territory.
  • The economic situation remains highly precarious and continues to rest primarily on the political and social situation in the country. While financial aid will help the country plug some of these gaps, it is worth noting that before the arrival of the pandemic, the CAR was already at a high risk of external debt distress. While the CAR is being subject to a smaller external shock compared to other African states (owing to its limited export base, it being an oil importer, and having a relatively small tourism sector), it is nevertheless feeling the impact through a decline in local demand, disruptions to commodity exports such as timber, reduced remittances and FDI, and additional outlays to contain/fight the pandemic.
CUMULATIVE AND DAILY COVID-19 INFECTIONS AND DEATH RATE
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | DATAMAPPER
Risk Perils
Political Instability
7.0
Expropriation, Nationalisation, Confiscation & Deprivation
6.0
Contract Frustration & Breach
8.0
Taxation
7.0
Bribery & Corruption
8.0
Regulatory Burden
8.0
Strikes, Riots & Civil Commotion
5.0
Security
8.0
Sovereign Default
6.0
Economic Volatiliy
6.0

Risk Rating Scale (small)

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