COMOROS

The increasing authoritarian tendencies of President Azali Assoumani have ultimately constrained the country’s growth prospects and the confidence of investors to do business in the country. A further deterioration in living standards is likely to contribute to growing anti-government sentiment. While the risk of political violence remains given the country’s history in this regard, such sentiment is most likely to manifest in isolated protests and strikes rather than a coup as President Assoumani continues to enjoy the support of the military. Any such protests will likely centre on additional repressive measures, unpopular policies announced by the government, or unemployment. The impact of Cyclone Kenneth in April 2019 and the coronavirus pandemic have left the economy in distress and dependent on donor aid.

• The move towards authoritarianism under Assoumani is facing resistance from the main opposition Juwa party. The early 2019 elections allowed Assoumani to contest the ballot without the inclusion of his main political rival, former president Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi, whose candidacy would have been invalidated as a result of legal embattlements. The 2020 legislative elections were further evidence of a tightening of the political space. Such a development has further antagonised Sambi’s opposition Juwa party, in addition to wider political and civic groupings, who have charged Assoumani with authoritarianism. The Juwa party has emerged as the primary critic of Assoumani’s constitutional reform program, which has seen the president enact a string of legislative measures that centralise power in the office of executive.
• Outbreaks of political protests and fighting with security forces is becoming more regular, particularly on Anjouan. Supporters of the Juwa party – the largest opposition entity in the Comoros – pose heightened risk of political protests, triggering running battles with security forces. Although repressive measures should adequately manage anti-government agitation in the near term, such tactics – in conjunction with recent political developments – could foment a more entrenched political crisis in the medium-to-long term. This is particularly the case on Anjouan island, which serves as the support base of the Juwa party and has previously harboured secessionist sentiments. Should the perceived persecution of Sambi and wider leadership structures of the Juwa party persist, unrest of a more organised and structural nature may emerge.
• Economic growth prospects and the confidence of investors are constrained by the government’s authoritarian tendencies, frequent violent unrest, and the impact of the pandemic on the development of the oil and tourism sectors. In addition to a decline in remittances from Europe, FDI inflows have also become weaker. To assist the country navigate the COVID-19 crisis, in 2020 the IMF approved a disbursement under its Rapid Credit Facility. Comoros has also benefitted from the IMF’s decision to provide relief on debt servicing to the IMF. Donors and investors will remain cautious, delaying infrastructure projects or the development of the post-pandemic tourist industry – considered a key engine for future growth once political and security concerns are eased. However, incentives are eroded by an ineffectual and corrupt tax system, the uninviting regulatory system, and frequent strikes.