MALI

Regional body ECOWAS has accepted the transitional government that replaced ousted former president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, even though the new administration remains dominated by military figures who led the August 2020 coup. The opposition M5-RFP, which staged mass demonstrations that eventually resulted in the toppling of the previous government, is likely to resume protests if the military does not stick to the timeline on elections by late 2021. In the immediate term, all stakeholders in Mali’s political and constitutional crisis will seek to restore stability as soon as possible to allow a transitional government to deal with the triple crises of handling the coronavirus pandemic, engaging Islamist insurgents, and limiting the impact of the country’s economic slowdown. In the short-term, there is unlikely to be any improvement in Mali’s security situation. However, there is little scope of increased disruption to commercial mining activities despite the recent coup and ongoing insurgency.

• New transitional president, retired colonel Bah N’Daw, unlikely to have extensive executive powers, while he is more likely to serve as a dignified front for continued military rule. The leader of the 18 August coup, Colonel Assimi Goïta, now acts as vice-president with new authority to reshape the Malian state. The formation of a transitional government will facilitate the removal of sanctions by ECOWAS, which were imposed after the coup. Since then, imports have slumped 30 percent as Mali’s neighbours closed borders and halted financial flows. The military will insist on the implementation of the Algiers Peace Accord signed in 2015 between mainly Tuareg northern armed groups and the government, which stalled under Keïta. It also seeks continued cooperation with all international military partners in Mali.
• Continued military collaboration with counter-terrorism units has put the military at odds with the M5-RFP opposition movement. The army’s commitment to counter-terrorism initiatives is at odds with the views of influential conservative imam Mahmoud Dicko, whose prefers dialogue with Mali’s two most prominent homegrown jihadist chiefs, Iyad ag Ghaly, head of the Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and Amadou Koufa, who leads its central Malian subsidiary, the Front de Libération du Macina (FLM). Improved relations with insurgent groups have increased hopes of a peace deal and integration of these groups into the military, which is strongly opposed by the 2020 coup leaders and the military. The sustained presence of foreign troops and ongoing violence will also limit the ability of the government to initiate a dialogue process with insurgent groups, meaning that the prospects for a ceasefire agreement in the coming year are extremely low.
• Mali’s economy will slow in 2020 from over 5 percent growth in 2019. However, a recovery is expected next year with economic growth set to rise to over 4 percent. The government has pledged a coronavirus aid package for the country’s poorest people worth USD 790 million, with sizable donations from Moroccan banks. The slowing economy mostly due to insecurity, maladministration, political instability, and the impact of the coronavirus. However, Mali is the third largest gold producer in Africa and gold mining has become a mainstay of the economy with a high potential of funding economic development and poverty reduction.