NAMIBIA

RISK RATING
Elevated
Default High Risk Score 4.00
Normal Average 2.20
Weighted Average 2.03
RISK RATING HISTORY
RISK RATING SCALE

Risk Rating Scale

Severe: 8.0 to 10
High: 6.0 to 7.9
Elevated: 4.0 to 5.9
Moderate: 2.0 to 3.9
Low: 0.0 to 1.9
EXCHANGE RATE
Country Outlook

Namibia‚Äôs economy is expected to be set back seven years in 2020 as a result of the pandemic, while living standards will drop to 2010 levels. Such decline already comes off the back of years of low growth and the unearthing of the biggest corruption scandal in the country last year. Frustration with the ruling party over this state of affairs and other grievances already resulted in a significant loss for the ruling SWAPO party in the elections in 2019 and 2020. With the next elections only scheduled for 2024, frustration with the government in the interim is likely to manifest in the form of isolated protests and strike action, particularly as the recession digs in. SWAPO leaders are also likely to view President Geingob as a political liability and will begin to manoeuvre to replace him prematurely. In any case, Geingob is expected to step down around the middle of his second term ‚Äď after SWAPO‚Äôs 2022 elective congress ‚Äď to allow his successor to prepare for the next general elections.

  • The governing SWAPO party suffered its worst defeat in almost 30 years in 2019, weakening its pro-business platform. At the 2019 elections, Namibia‚Äôs President Hage Geingob won the presidential ballot with just 56.3 percent of the vote, a 31-point fall on his score of five years ago. The governing SWAPO Party lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority which would have allowed the government to easily drive constitutional change. The result is the worst for the long-time ruling party since independence in 1990. Since the party‚Äôs electoral performance as fallen well below the results of 2014, pressure will now mount on Geingob to step down prematurely and hand over to his chosen successor, party vice-president and current Foreign Minister Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah.
  • Rising risk of civil unrest is due to a weak government, ongoing corruption scandals, and labour action. Namibia rarely sees outbreaks of violence, although the rise of an urban radical opposition increases the risk of sporadic protests in major cities. Labour unions are likely to step up industrial action and protests, which will pose risk of disruption to construction, transport, manufacturing, and mining industries over the next few years. The risk of organised crime, including armed robbery and carjacking, is rising, while armed gangs originating from the northern regions are increasingly targeting foreigners and expatriates, raising risks of robbery and carjacking to mining personnel and tourists.
  • Namibia is facing the worst economic contraction in the country‚Äôs history as COVID-19 wreaked unprecedented havoc on the tourism, transport, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, construction, and mining sectors. Taken together, these contractions will have a dramatic effect on the living standards of Namibians, as it is estimated that GDP per capita will now fall to 2010 levels. Analysts have further noted that it will take many years of relatively high and consistent growth and spending to return real GDP per capita to just 2015 levels. The ‚ÄėFishrot‚Äô corruption scandal has cast a shadow on Namibia as it attempts to boost the economy.
CUMULATIVE AND DAILY COVID-19 INFECTIONS AND DEATH RATE
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | DATAMAPPER
Risk Perils
Political Instability
2.0
Expropriation, Nationalisation, Confiscation & Deprivation
1.5
Contract Frustration & Breach
2.0
Taxation
1.5
Bribery & Corruption
1.5
Regulatory Burden
2.0
Strikes, Riots & Civil Commotion
2.0
Security
1.5
Sovereign Default
4.0
Economic Volatiliy
4.0

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