Risk Scores

RISK SCORES

RISK METHODOLOGY

Pangea-Risk has developed a unique risk scoring system for 68 African and Middle East countries that allows users to compare and contrast ten individual risk perils for each country representing the macro political, economic, and security environment over a forecasted one-year outlook. These individual perils form the basis of our overall country risk ratings. Our risk methodology combines both a qualitative and a quantitative approach to assessing risk and is influenced by international best practice, such as the United Nations Security Risk Management Process, European Interagency Security Forum, and the World Economic Forum.

For more on Pangea-Risk’s risk methodology and definitions, see here.

CURRENT RISK RATING BY DEFAULT HIGHEST SCORE

Risk Rating Scale

RISK RATING SCALE
8.0 – 10
6 – 7.9
4.0 – 5.9
2.0 – 3.9
0.0 – 1.9
Severe
High
Elevated
Moderate
Low
RISK RATING BY NORMAL AVERAGE
RISK RATING BY WEIGHTED AVERAGE
CURRENT RISK SCORES TABLE
CURRENT DEFAULT HIGH RISK RATING AVERAGES

Risk scores are fully downloadable in PDF or CSV format allowing users to integrate the scores into their own existing databases. The risk scores are regularly reviewed and updated to reflect changes in a country’s political risk outlook. Risk scores can be viewed either in the below interactive table or in a colour coded map.

The total country risk scores are calculated on the basis of a Default High Risk Score (preferred methodology used in Pangea-Risk’s risk modelling), a Normal Average, and a Weighted Average based on our own dilution factor.  Members can download the quarterly updated risk score files and adjust the Weighted Average according to their own preferences.

Hold Shift while scrolling or use your trackpad to move the table left or right.

CountryPolitical InstabilityExpropriation, Nationalisation, Confiscation & DeprivationContract Frustration & BreachTaxationBribery & CorruptionRegulatory BurdenStrikes, Riots & Civil CommotionSecuritySovereign DefaultEconomic VolatiliyDefault High Risk ScoreRisk RatingNormal AverageRisk RatingWeighted AverageRisk Rating
ALGERIA3.63.24.82.54.04.04.24.23.05.85.80Elevated3.93Moderate3.77Moderate
ANGOLA3.04.83.53.55.24.03.22.25.85.85.80Elevated4.10Elevated3.85Moderate
BAHRAIN1.51.51.52.02.02.02.31.01.82.62.60Moderate1.82Low1.66Low
BENIN1.81.01.51.02.01.52.82.22.02.62.80Moderate1.84Low1.69Low
BOTSWANA1.81.21.81.81.21.41.81.01.03.83.80Moderate1.68Low1.65Low
BURKINA FASO7.05.05.05.06.06.06.08.55.07.08.50Severe6.05High6.13High
BURUNDI3.04.05.04.06.05.03.05.05.06.06.00High4.60Elevated4.05Elevated
CAMEROON5.04.06.05.07.06.05.06.56.06.07.00High5.65Elevated5.23Elevated
CAPE VERDE1.51.01.51.51.51.81.81.24.05.05.00Elevated2.08Moderate1.72Low
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC7.06.08.07.08.08.05.08.06.06.08.00Severe6.90High6.85High
CHAD6.54.05.06.56.06.06.56.57.57.07.50High6.15High5.88Elevated
COMOROS4.04.04.04.06.04.04.03.04.05.06.00High4.20Elevated4.10Elevated
CONGO, REPUBLIC5.54.04.56.07.05.05.53.09.07.09.00Severe5.65Elevated5.30Elevated
COTE D'IVOIRE (IVORY COAST)3.53.03.53.03.03.53.83.83.03.83.80Moderate3.39Moderate3.37Moderate
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO7.07.07.06.08.07.06.07.55.05.08.00Severe6.55High6.78High
DJIBOUTI4.05.04.54.06.04.02.51.84.85.06.00High4.16Elevated4.26Elevated
EGYPT2.02.53.03.04.04.04.05.03.04.05.00Elevated3.45Moderate2.85Moderate
EQUATORIAL GUINEA6.55.05.05.07.56.02.03.06.06.07.50High5.20Elevated5.55Elevated
ERITREA6.07.07.06.07.57.02.03.09.07.09.00Severe6.15High6.28High
ETHIOPIA7.05.06.04.05.06.07.57.56.56.57.50High6.10High6.20High
GABON4.53.53.54.56.05.05.03.55.06.06.00High4.65Elevated4.38Elevated
GAMBIA5.03.03.53.54.04.05.02.55.05.85.80Elevated4.13Elevated4.19Elevated
GHANA4.03.04.03.03.54.04.03.04.04.04.00Elevated3.65Moderate3.68Moderate
GUINEA6.05.55.55.06.56.05.53.55.05.06.50High5.35Elevated5.58Elevated
GUINEA-BISSAU6.06.06.06.07.56.05.05.05.06.07.50High5.85Elevated5.93Elevated
IRAN4.55.05.55.06.04.55.54.07.07.57.50High5.45Elevated5.10Elevated
IRAQ7.05.56.06.06.56.06.56.56.07.07.00High6.30High6.38High
ISRAEL2.51.01.01.51.52.02.23.52.03.03.50Moderate2.02Moderate1.96Low
JORDAN2.02.02.53.53.03.53.22.54.84.84.80Elevated3.18Moderate2.62Moderate
KENYA4.52.54.03.06.56.03.55.07.56.57.50High4.90Elevated4.38Elevated
KUWAIT1.81.21.22.52.01.01.81.23.02.53.00Moderate1.82Low1.69Low
LEBANON6.04.55.05.05.04.07.05.09.07.09.00Severe5.75Elevated5.60Elevated
LESOTHO3.52.23.04.04.03.02.82.85.56.56.50High3.73Moderate3.40Moderate
LIBERIA5.03.54.55.06.05.05.03.06.07.07.00High5.00Elevated4.75Elevated
LIBYA6.88.08.08.08.07.57.07.57.06.58.00Severe7.43High7.36High
MADAGASCAR4.54.55.55.56.56.04.22.24.55.56.50High4.89Elevated4.75Elevated
MALAWI3.54.54.54.54.54.84.22.25.05.85.80Elevated4.35Elevated4.13Elevated
MALI7.04.55.56.07.07.07.08.55.85.88.50Severe6.41High6.26High
MAURITANIA2.83.54.54.04.54.53.04.05.05.25.20Elevated4.10Elevated3.64Moderate
MAURITIUS1.20.51.81.01.01.21.21.03.05.05.00Elevated1.69Low1.37Low
MOROCCO2.01.52.52.02.83.04.03.02.54.54.50Elevated2.78Moderate2.34Moderate
MOZAMBIQUE3.04.05.55.06.05.54.07.57.06.07.50High5.35Elevated4.45Elevated
NAMIBIA2.01.52.01.51.52.02.01.54.04.04.00Elevated2.20Moderate2.03Moderate
NIGER5.04.55.05.56.06.05.58.06.06.58.00Severe5.80Elevated5.33Elevated
NIGERIA4.54.06.55.57.06.56.07.06.57.07.00High6.05High5.30Elevated
OMAN1.51.53.43.03.03.02.82.04.54.54.50Elevated2.92Moderate2.31Moderate
QATAR1.01.81.81.81.81.50.81.51.01.81.80Low1.48Low1.40Low
RWANDA2.01.51.81.82.02.01.82.03.03.03.00Moderate2.09Moderate1.96Low
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE2.02.02.02.01.52.02.02.55.06.06.00High2.70Moderate2.35Moderate
SAUDI ARABIA1.52.04.04.05.04.52.55.01.53.05.00Elevated3.30Moderate2.60Moderate
SENEGAL2.02.02.52.02.03.03.03.83.84.54.50Elevated2.86Moderate2.46Moderate
SEYCHELLES1.20.51.51.51.02.01.51.04.06.06.00High2.02Moderate1.52Low
SIERRA LEONE5.03.55.05.56.56.05.54.06.06.56.50High5.35Elevated4.95Elevated
SOMALIA8.08.08.08.08.08.07.08.59.08.59.00Severe8.10Severe8.05Severe
SOUTH AFRICA2.23.84.24.83.04.05.85.22.85.55.80Elevated4.13Elevated3.51Moderate
SOUTH SUDAN6.27.57.57.58.08.06.06.06.06.08.00Severe6.87High6.80High
SUDAN6.85.56.57.07.56.56.26.09.08.09.00Severe6.90High6.64High
SWAZILAND3.02.03.53.56.54.04.53.05.05.56.50High4.05Elevated3.40Moderate
SYRIA8.08.08.08.09.08.05.08.09.08.89.00Severe7.98High7.99High
TANZANIA2.24.85.85.84.05.04.03.53.04.55.80Elevated4.26Elevated3.80Moderate
TOGO2.01.52.02.03.02.83.02.53.03.53.50Moderate2.53Moderate2.19Moderate
TUNISIA3.82.24.04.54.05.04.05.55.06.06.00High4.40Elevated3.87Moderate
TURKEY2.02.22.53.54.04.04.04.57.06.57.00High4.02Elevated3.07Moderate
UGANDA3.54.05.05.05.54.55.54.04.55.05.50Elevated4.65Elevated4.23Elevated
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES1.01.01.51.51.81.50.81.21.51.81.80Low1.36Low1.21Low
YEMEN9.08.09.09.09.09.08.08.59.08.89.00Severe8.73Severe8.72Severe
ZAMBIA4.06.56.56.56.56.05.53.09.07.09.00Severe6.05High5.53Elevated
ZIMBABWE8.58.08.08.08.08.07.05.59.09.09.00Severe7.90High8.10Severe
Copyright (c) PANGEA-RISK

Click here to download your risk scores in PDF or CSV format.

RISK SCORE HISTORY BY COUNTRY
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
CURRENT RISK SCORES BY COUNTRY

Pangea-Risk rates all countries according to a Normal Average, a Weighted Average, and a Default to the Highest Risk Score.

CURRENT DEFAULT HIGH RISK SCORE BY RISK RATING
SEVERE Risk Score HIGH Risk Score ELEVATED Risk Score MODERATE Risk Score LOW Risk Score
CONGO, REPUBLIC 9.00 CHAD 7.50 ALGERIA 5.80 BOTSWANA 3.80 QATAR 1.80
ERITREA 9.00 EQUATORIAL GUINEA 7.50 ANGOLA 5.80 COTE D’IVOIRE (IVORY COAST) 3.80 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1.80
LEBANON 9.00 ETHIOPIA 7.50 GAMBIA 5.80 ISRAEL 3.50
SOMALIA 9.00 GUINEA-BISSAU 7.50 MALAWI 5.80 TOGO 3.50
SUDAN 9.00 IRAN 7.50 SOUTH AFRICA 5.80 KUWAIT 3.00
SYRIA 9.00 KENYA 7.50 TANZANIA 5.80 RWANDA 3.00
YEMEN 9.00 MOZAMBIQUE 7.50 UGANDA 5.50 BENIN 2.80
ZAMBIA 9.00 CAMEROON 7.00 MAURITANIA 5.20 BAHRAIN 2.60
ZIMBABWE 9.00 IRAQ 7.00 CAPE VERDE 5.00
BURKINA FASO 8.50 LIBERIA 7.00 EGYPT 5.00
MALI 8.50 NIGERIA 7.00 MAURITIUS 5.00
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 8.00 TURKEY 7.00 SAUDI ARABIA 5.00
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO 8.00 GUINEA 6.50 JORDAN 4.80
LIBYA 8.00 LESOTHO 6.50 MOROCCO 4.50
NIGER 8.00 MADAGASCAR 6.50 OMAN 4.50
SOUTH SUDAN 8.00 SIERRA LEONE 6.50 SENEGAL 4.50
SWAZILAND 6.50 GHANA 4.00
BURUNDI 6.00 NAMIBIA 4.00
COMOROS 6.00
DJIBOUTI 6.00
GABON 6.00
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE 6.00
SEYCHELLES 6.00
TUNISIA 6.00

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