The government will capitalise on Robert Mugabe’s legacy to consolidate its authority and establish further control over patronage networks in the banking and agricultural sectors. However, it is failing to make headway on an economic recovery, taming inflation, and restoring power supply. The opposition is set to resume protests and strikes in coming weeks, raising the risk of a complete economic shut-down. Foreign partners, even benevolent ones, will struggle to push through any form of debt relief and a mooted bailout as the crisis deepens.
The latest outbreak of anti-immigrant violence in South Africa has been unusual only because of its timing coinciding with a major investment conference and the potential political motivations behind the attacks on foreigners. EXX Africa investigates the political and economic drivers of such violence, as well as the commercial impact of retaliatory action against South African interests elsewhere in Africa.
Following a two week ban on protests, political demonstrations are set to resume across major cities. Security forces will seek to protect border crossings and airports from blockades, although a spike in retaliatory attacks, intimidation tactics, and political assassinations may increase the prospect of violence that would threaten relations with donors and the IMF. Optimistic economic projections may also be thwarted by commercial disruption and weak tobacco sales.
Algeria’s ruling general is either preparing to install himself as a strongman-president of an Egyptian-inspired securocratic state or he is seeking to transition political power to a civilian administration that will protect the military’s interests. EXX Africa investigates the probability and implications of both scenarios.
EXX Africa reflects on some of the political and economic challenges facing Africa’s last absolute monarchy, as the small landlocked nation emerges from recent contested elections and finds itself in an economic crisis.
The incoming transitional government will need to address three priorities if it is to last its three-year term: namely seeking prosecution of those held responsible for war crimes and violence against protestors; unravelling Sudan’s ‘deep-state’ of competing power networks that continue to control lucrative assets; and driving a sustained economic recovery, most likely with Gulf financial support.
State-owned enterprises in Africa have a notorious reputation for being mismanaged and for repeatedly requiring financial bailouts. EXX Africa unpacks this notion by looking at some of the best and worst-performing entities across the continent. Our analysis spans from examples in Morocco, Ghana, and Ethiopia to Zambia and South Africa.
Falling output in the farming sector is mostly due to disastrous state interventionist policies orchestrated by the current government. Lower revenues from the agricultural sector will add stress to the government’s fiscal balance, while also posing heightened risk of default and bankruptcy within the local banking sector.
Two months out from elections, Mozambique’s government has secured a peace deal with the armed opposition and agreed on debt restructuring with most of its creditors. These are crucial steppingstones as the country seeks massive gas-related investment inflows and a potential new IMF programme. However, an intensifying Islamist insurgency, suspected electoral manipulation, and lack of progress on bringing perpetrators of the hidden loans scandal to account remain key obstacles towards longer term stability.
The incoming government is not expected to deviate from the strong naira and directed credit policy, although there is a better chance of widespread oil sector reform being implemented to plug Nigeria’s gaping budget deficit. There is no indication that the new government will act fast to implement measures for continental free trade or deal with the country’s myriad security crises.
- EXX Africa director Robert Besseling moderated a panel on Africa’s commodity rollercoaster at GTR Commodities in Geneva hosted by Global Trade Review (GTR)
- SOUTH SUDAN: DEBT BURDEN AND CORRUPTION MAY DISSUADE FRESH FOREIGN INVESTMENT
- TUNISIA: MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES SEEK TO MITIGATE IMPACT OF UPSET ELECTORAL DEFEAT
- ZAMBIA: CHINA SEEKS MINING ASSETS AS COLLATERAL TO PROTECT AGAINST LOOMING DEFAULT
- SPECIAL REPORT: SHOCK TO GLOBAL OIL PRICES WILL IMPACT AFRICAN PRODUCERS AND IMPORTERS