As Uganda’s long-time president manoeuvres into position to extend his tenure, the country’s political outlook is shaken by a crackdown on the opposition and an escalating trade dispute with Rwanda that threatens to disturb regional commerce and security, while also casting concern over Uganda’s economic trajectory.
The probability of an opposition victory in upcoming elections is increasing, which raises the risk of corruption probes and contract renegotiations after the polls. However, the incumbent will use new legislation and control over security forces to push back against the opposition’s momentum, thus raising the risk of political violence in coming months.
The government is preparing to issue more Eurobonds once Ghana departs the IMF programme. While new loans would finance the budget deficit and fund expansive spending programmes to boost liquidity in the banking sector and SME sector, there remain concerns over revenue collection and debt servicing.
A possibly imminent offensive by eastern forces to capture Tripoli would be strategically perilous, diplomatically unwise, and financially unaffordable. The opposing sides are more likely to begin contentious talks on a transition government rather than risk another drawn-out civil war.
The central bank has warned that mounting debt servicing costs risk depleting international reserves at an accelerated rate. However, there is no sign that the government is willing to slow debt accumulation or crack down on state corruption. While a default scenario remains unlikely, the pathways for recourse are narrowing.
Despite securing a comfortable re-election victory in last month’s elections, President Macky Sall’s perceived authoritarian streak will drive continued risk of unrest in his second term. However, the economic outlook and prospect for further business-minded reform remains bright, at least for now.
Ten days of intensifying protests in Algeria’s urban centres have rattled the country’s elite and thwarted carefully calibrated political transition plans. Although the protests remain unorganised and leaderless, there are several indicators that might lead to escalation ahead of and following the April elections.
The parties of the new and former president are struggling to form a governing coalition, while the outlook for further change to mining regulations and taxes remains uncertain. If a workable government can be formed and global cobalt prices bottom out, DRC’s economic trajectory will make a strong recovery.
Exaggerated media and analyst reports claim that Islamist insurgents are now specifically targeting Mozambique’s nascent natural gas sector. However, EXX Africa intelligence suggests that recent attacks on gas assets have been opportunistic, while the greatest threat to the development of gas resources is derived from crude counter-insurgency tactics and mounting local community grievances.
Over the next three months, the threat of protracted labour action at mining companies and public utilities will increase, while instances of suspected ‘economic sabotage’ and more frequent political unrest will raise the risk of commercial disruption to export sectors.
- EXX Africa participated at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk – Africa conference last week in Cape Town.
- UGANDA: TRADE DISPUTE AND OPPOSITION TRIAL DESTABILISE OUTLOOK TOWARDS 2021 ELECTIONS
- MALAWI: OPPOSITION GAINS FRESH MOMENTUM AHEAD OF MAY ELECTIONS
- BURKINA FASO: COUNTERING THE SPREAD OF ISLAMIST MILITANCY
- GHANA: AFTER THE IMF… MORE DEBT