In the coming year, Sudan is likely to make the most significant improvement to its country risk outlook following several recent developments, while Egypt and Iran are also set to make important headway in 2021. However, previous investment favourites Ethiopia and Zambia, alongside Turkey, will see substantial deterioration in their country risk outlook this year. PANGEA-RISK assesses the key drivers of risk in Africa and the Middle East for the year ahead.
The first COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in Europe and North America have prompted expectations of an impending return to “normality.” However, as low- and middle-income countries struggle to secure access to vaccines, the prospects for a vaccine-driven economic recovery in Africa remain distant. Moreover, supply chain issues and vaccine hesitancy remain prominent challenges for the continent.
South-south economic, political, and security ties between the Middle East and Africa are growing at a rapid rate with significant opportunities on the horizon. With today’s official launch of PANGEA-RISK, an intelligence venture that will provide country risk analysis and forecasting across both regions, we explore the nature of the involvement of some of the Middle East’s key players – namely the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Israel – in Africa in this special report.
The EXX Africa survey conducted in Angola in October accurately forecast last week’s violence in Luanda. As instances of police brutality are uncovered and new corruption scandals emerge, relations with key lending partners such as the IMF and other creditors are likely to deteriorate and may push the oil producer toward a high probability of sovereign debt default next year.
While the signing of a permanent ceasefire agreement between Libya’s warring factions has raised hopes of a gradual return to stability and full resumption of oil production, its implementation faces a range of obstacles. EXX Africa assesses the potential for the deal to hold in the coming months, as well as the outlook for Libya’s commercial sector.
Anti-French sentiment is emerging once again across the Muslim world following controversy over the republishing of satirical cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad. While much attention has been focused on how such sentiment has manifested in France itself, as well as in the Middle East and South Asia, we explore the risks in sub-Saharan Africa.
Two out of three Angolans are deeply dissatisfied with their government and are pessimistic about their country’s outlook, according to the first independent public opinion survey conducted in Angola since the lockdown of 2020. Over the past three months, this sentiment has triggered anti-government protests, which have often been brutally curbed by Angolan security forces.
As Egypt continues to manage the broad impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, in late September increasing socio-economic pressures triggered a rare widespread public display of discontent, as protests erupted across the country. Amidst lingering economic uncertainty, we assess the risk of further civil disturbances in the coming months.
One potential bright spot for African economies this year has been the surge in the gold price which rose by 28 percent between January and August. However, tapping into these revenues is not as straight forward as it may seem. We unpack the opportunities and challenges in a number of key gold producing and exporting countries, from Ghana to South Africa.
With less than seven weeks to go until the US elections, questions are starting to be asked about whether a Trump or Biden administration would be better for Africa. We contextualise US policy towards the continent over the past three decades and compare the outlook for both contenders.