Almost one year into his presidential term, George Weah is struggling to hold together his loose coalition, while his administration is being tainted by fresh graft scandals, mismanagement allegations, and dampened investor interest.
Six months ahead of the next national elections, any previous opposition momentum is drifting, while the governing ANC will seek to delay the president’s reform agenda to avoid any serious political backlash at the polls. With South Africa just about pulling out of recession, this short-minded tactic might just pay off.
President Edgar Lungu is gearing up his strategy to remain in office, which will consist of centralising political authority, repressing his critics, and overspending on politically motivated infrastructure and defence sector projects.
The start of politicking for the next set of elections has the potential to impact political stability and the country’s policy agenda. A split in the governing coalition is becoming more likely as President Kenyatta seeks rapprochement with the opposition.
Although the reported killing of a high profile Islamist militant leader will make a significant operational blow to the jihadist insurgency, an escalation in retaliatory violence is likely in coming weeks, particularly in the capital Bamako and at high profile targets.
The month of November has seen an uptick in insurgent attacks in northern Mozambique with mounting evidence of transnational ties and a more recent expansion to other provinces, yet the risk of militancy to the nascent LNG sector remains moderate.
The suspension of licenses for NGOs operating in Senegal is likely to trigger a coordinated response by activist groups and opposition parties in the form of protests and boycotts ahead of the February 2019 elections.
Despite a US Embassy security message warning of a threat of terrorism against US government facilities in Kinshasa, there are no potential groups that could be assessed as having the intent and operational capacity to launch such an attack.
The opposition will again step up disruptive protests in Lomé ahead of next month’s elections, yet the unrest is unlikely to frustrate fiscal consolidation measures and a military intervention remains unlikely.
- EXX Africa analysis on the commercial impact of the #Kenya terror attack is cited by AFP news agency
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- EXX Africa assesses the potential economic impact of the #Kenya terror attacks in #Bloomberg
- AFRICA INVESTMENT RISK REPORT 2019
- KENYA: ISLAMIST MILITANTS STRIKE AT THE HEART OF A VULNERABLE ECONOMY