The obstinate political opposition has forced President Talon to exclude them from parliament. As his power goes unchecked by a pliable judiciary, Talon is expected to implement his pro-investment and liberalising economic agenda. The prospect of further lucrative project finance deals and the need to keep a key counter-terrorism ally on-board may limit international criticism of President Talon’s more authoritarian tendencies, as is highlighted by a recent kidnapping of French nationals.
Vast swathes of Cameroon’s northern and western regions are turning into a permanent conflict theatre, as there is no indication of the anglophone insurgency abating. Meanwhile, a concurrent Islamist insurgency is becoming more deeply entrenched. As counter-insurgency tactics fail, Cameroon risks stumbling into a drawn-out civil war, especially once the president’s eventual departure triggers fresh political instability.
Marginalised public sector employees and frustrated communities in economically side-lined regions are posing a heightened risk of strikes and protests, just as the fractious coalition government gears up for the 2020 legislative elections. Meanwhile, the King’s centralised administration pushes ahead with high-cost industrial and infrastructure projects in the country’s economic hubs, which only benefit the more affluent middle classes.
Guinea’s remarkable mining boom may be threatened by a looming showdown in the political arena as President Alpha Condé gears up to run for an unconstitutional third term, despite widespread resistance against his re-election bid and the growing prospect of a unified opposition challenge at elections next year that could trigger fresh ethnic violence.
A recent claim by the Islamic State claiming the establishment of a ‘Central Province of the Caliphate’ in the DRC has confirmed reports of intranational jihadist support for Congolese militant group, the Allied Democratic Forces. However, upon reviewing local, regional, and international political and security dynamics, these links remain tenuous.
The second major storm to hit Mozambique in the past two months will have a much greater impact on the Islamist insurgency in the LNG investment hub of Cabo Delgado. Despite a recent drop-off in the number of attacks in the province, EXX Africa expects insurgents to increasingly target cyclone relief aid operations, while attacks on villages near gas facilities will increase again in coming months.
Uganda’s long-time strongman leader is seeking to extend his tenure of the presidency at a time of probable economic slowdown and sustained opposition momentum. These are key motivators for political instability. The government is cracking down on any resistance from the opposition, NGOs, and foreign partners, as well as broadening its tax base to offset falling government revenues.
The political upheaval in neighbouring Sudan has thrown into confusion the prospect of a unity government in South Sudan. A high-profile conference at the Vatican failed to make a break-through and displayed the renewed obstinacy of the main rebel leader. However, the prospect of improved international relations and economic recovery might just be sufficient motivation to push ahead with peace plans.
Mali’s government and military hierarchy has been reshuffled in an indication that the state is losing complete control over swathes of the country to Islamist militants and anti-jihadist militias. Similar trends are visible across the Sahel, especially in Burkina Faso and Niger, posing an ever-greater threat of southward expansion of terrorism in West Africa.
Tunisia will need some USD 2.5 billion in external support this year, but its efforts to attract funding and investment will be hampered by increasingly belligerent labour unions that are calling for a dilution of IMF lending conditions, a fissile political environment ahead of this year’s elections, and a vulnerability to security threats as neighbouring Libya and Algeria face their own crises.
- SPECIAL REPORT: ETHIOPIA SEEKS PRIVATISATIONS IN VOLATILE POLITICAL CLIMATE
- SOUTH AFRICA: PRESIDENT FACES CRUCIAL DECISION ON ESKOM REFORM IN POLICY ADDRESS
- EXX Africa director Robert Besseling moderated a panel on Africa’s Capital Markets at the Invest Africa Annual Debate 2019
- EXX Africa analysis is quoted in Bloomberg on Angola oil sector reforms.
- DRC: RESHUFFLING THE POLITICAL CARDS