Recent developments in Sudan have simultaneously raised hopes for momentous regime change and brought about significant uncertainty over the future of the country and the entire region, particularly as demonstrations against those in power have continued unabated. As new and old stakeholders fight for relevance, it is worth unpacking these dynamics, highlighting the key players, stumbling blocks and potential risk outlook.
The violent and disputed electoral process in Rivers State and apparent embezzlement of local development funds have antagonised local communities, which would be exacerbated if the military redeploys into Ogoniland. However, a return to armed insurgency in the Niger Delta currently seems less likely given militant groups’ preoccupation with lucrative oil theft and piracy activities.
President Ramaphosa’s ANC is set to reverse a trend of electoral decline at general elections in three weeks, despite the party’s record of entrenched corruption, economic mismanagement, and political in-fighting. In this special report, we look beyond those elections and forecast the key drivers of political, security, and economic risk for Africa’s most developed economy in the post-elections climate.
The ousting of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was accurately forecast by EXX Africa several months ago. The prospects of political stability, regional security, and economic recovery under the new military leadership seems less clear, especially since protest leaders and the armed opposition have rejected the long transition to civilian rule creating flashpoints for further violence in coming weeks.
A sudden military escalation focusing on Libya’s capital, Tripoli, threatens to undermine the aspirations of the UN and the international backers of the Government of National Accord to bring stability to the country. We assess the possible outcomes of the current outbreak of conflict and the implications for the broader commercial environment in Libya.
The Islamist insurgency in northeastern Nigeria has continued on a track that is all too familiar. In many ways, the conflict appears to be repeating trends seen in previous years, particularly from 2013 to 2015, when the insurgency flared up dramatically. Should the conflict continue on its current trajectory, the threat may again extend beyond Borno State and Nigeria’s borders.
Tainted elections, a crackdown on the opposition, and an apparent staged mutiny underline the deterioration of Comoros’s political and security environment, which could foment a more entrenched political crisis in the future. President Assoumani will seek to strengthen bilateral relations with Arab Gulf countries and build up the oil sector’s potential in order to offset the impact of falling western donor aid.
The detention of Vodacom executives in Tanzania fits into the government’s broader crackdown on the telecoms and media sectors, as well as its restriction of political freedoms. While some donors will cut foreign aid, some European countries are seeking participation in the country’s massive industrial and infrastructure projects, including the development of the LNG sector.
Despite his touted anti-corruption agenda, President Cyril Ramaphosa is facing his own graft allegations, while his party’s election list includes many figures tainted by the ‘state capture’ era. The continued influence of his predecessor’s political faction may weaken Ramaphosa’s ability to select his own cabinet after next month’s elections and could impact ratings reviews by credit agencies.
Algeria’s military has forced the resignation of the president and will seek a continuation of its power base following elections due by the end of June. The army’s ability to negotiate a new political agreement with the opposition and protest leaders will be key in its success to ensure stability and mitigate further commercial disruption.
- SPECIAL REPORT: ETHIOPIA SEEKS PRIVATISATIONS IN VOLATILE POLITICAL CLIMATE
- SOUTH AFRICA: PRESIDENT FACES CRUCIAL DECISION ON ESKOM REFORM IN POLICY ADDRESS
- EXX Africa director Robert Besseling moderated a panel on Africa’s Capital Markets at the Invest Africa Annual Debate 2019
- EXX Africa analysis is quoted in Bloomberg on Angola oil sector reforms.
- DRC: RESHUFFLING THE POLITICAL CARDS