Mining and NGO interests in eastern provinces already face a high baseline threat from armed militant attacks, yet there is no evidence suggesting that insurgent groups are expanding their operational capability.
The new government marks its one-year anniversary facing serious obstacles to its economic reform agenda, as well as intensifying political rivalries, which threaten to undermine the prospect of international financing commitments.
Despite relatively peaceful and well-organised first round elections, the risk of violence and commercial disruption will spike towards the run-off presidential vote in December between two long-time political foes.
The management of Zimbabwe’s economic and monetary policy is becoming the next battleground for rival factions in the ruling party, with allegations that a recent spike in inflation has been engineered to destabilise the government.
Fresh political pressures on the peace process coincide with the commencement of commercial diamond extractions, raising renewed concerns over political instability and contract frustration in the mining sector.
As the opposition alliance fractures, the probability of victory by the governing coalition’s presidential candidate has increased, while the possibility of an election postponement has been significantly reduced.
The condition of President Bongo remains clouded in uncertainty, even though a political transition is likely to be underway which will ensure economic stability, yet much-needed reforms to the oil sector are likely to be stalled.
As the government steps up intimidation of its LGBT community, it risks the suspension of donor aid and a wider international backlash, which may well play into the president’s hands as he seeks to target foreign investments.
The post-election climate has been brightened by a large hydropower investment and a positive economic outlook; however, the threat of insurgency, fragile debt sustainability, and lack of political succession planning will remain longer term threats to stability.
A political stand-off over cabinet appointments is expected to exacerbate the polarisation between partisan supporters ahead of the 2019 elections, while falling foreign reserves bode ill for import cover and debt servicing.
- EXX Africa analysis on the commercial impact of the #Kenya terror attack is cited by AFP news agency
- CAMEROON: KIDNAP RISKS AND COMMERCIAL DISRUPTION INTENSIFY ANGLOPHONE INSURGENCY
- EXX Africa assesses the potential economic impact of the #Kenya terror attacks in #Bloomberg
- AFRICA INVESTMENT RISK REPORT 2019
- KENYA: ISLAMIST MILITANTS STRIKE AT THE HEART OF A VULNERABLE ECONOMY