Sudanese military attacks on Darfuri rebel groups and suspected Chadian militant raids on Darfuri villages are likely to frustrate international re-engagement and the removal of sanctions on Sudan.
Former vice president Joice Mujuru’s notable successes in generating support for her People First organisation will face a heavy-handed crackdown by security forces, raising unrest risks in 2016.
Relations between Sahel-based Islamist militant groups and Burkina Faso’s new government have steadily deteriorated, while further attacks are likely in Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal, and Cote d’Ivoire.
Exx Africa sources in Luanda report on conflicting statements regarding the presidential succession, while President dos Santos attempts to consolidate his position as he comes under growing pressure to step down.
Despite the formation of a transitional government, the risk of violent attacks on oil installations, transport infrastructure, and aviation assets will remain severe in the one-year outlook.
Following relatively peaceful elections, the risk of political instability and insecurity is likely to fall in CAR over the next year, although the new president is unlikely to be fully in control of the whole country.
The deployment of an AU peacekeeping force to Burundi is unlikely at least in the three-month outlook and would be unlikely to prevent an escalation of fighting beyond the capital Bujumbura.
Maputo’s Asian business community faces heightened risk of kidnap for ransom attacks over the holiday period, while similar attacks are likely to become more frequent in South Africa’s city of Durban.
The risk of anti-government protests, sectarian violence, and retaliatory attacks will increase over the January 2016 Christian holiday period, while more coordinated protests are likely in Oromia.
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