Intensifying inter-communal violence in South Sudan will undermine the new unity government and stoke tensions with neighbouring Ethiopia, increasing the risk of fighting in border areas, though a full-blown inter-state war is unlikely.
The intelligence services have so far failed to uproot militant networks, while intensifying violence in northern regions indicate deep divisions over the June 2015 peace agreement and continuing risk of insecurity.
Despite the implementation of a peace agreement to end a two-year civil war, risk of further violence, non-payment, and currency inconvertibility will remain severe in the lead-up to the 2018 election.
The next year of conflict in Burundi will be more violent and disruptive than the previous year, as youth militia are being prepared for new offensives and the military is being purged of any potential opponents.
Attacks on infrastructure, security forces, and transport corridors in the centre and north of Mozambique are becoming more likely, as RENAMO steps up disruptive hit-and-run tactics, many of which are going unreported.
The central bank’s introduction of exchange controls for commercial banks is aimed at debt sustainability, yet will accelerate EXX Africa’s forecast of local business bankruptcies and outbreaks of violent unrest in major cities.
Regulatory uncertainty and political instability in Zanzibar will further delay the development of the natural gas sector, triggering a broader Islamist-inspired insurgency in southern Tanzania and the archipelago.
Following the disclosure of several sizable secret loans, international financial institutions will cancel existing loan agreements raising the risk of sovereign default, contract frustration, and violent protests.
While it is unlikely that former ‘Ninja’ rebels were responsible for attacks in southern Brazzaville, a harsh military response is increasingly likely to open ethnic fault lines, threatening further violent unrest in major cities.
Despite high profile defections, President Ali Bongo is likely to secure re-election in August by relying on close allies and state patronage, although risk of violent unrest will increase in the six-month outlook.
- SPECIAL REPORT: ETHIOPIA SEEKS PRIVATISATIONS IN VOLATILE POLITICAL CLIMATE
- SOUTH AFRICA: PRESIDENT FACES CRUCIAL DECISION ON ESKOM REFORM IN POLICY ADDRESS
- EXX Africa director Robert Besseling moderated a panel on Africa’s Capital Markets at the Invest Africa Annual Debate 2019
- EXX Africa analysis is quoted in Bloomberg on Angola oil sector reforms.
- DRC: RESHUFFLING THE POLITICAL CARDS