Almost ten years after a fateful coup d’état that triggered a generation of political instability and economic decline for Madagascar, longstanding political rivals Andry Rajoelina and Marc Ravalomanana again face each other at the polls.
Despite relatively peaceful and well-organised first round elections, the risk of violence and commercial disruption will spike towards the run-off presidential vote in December between two long-time political foes.
While the pre-election climate has been relatively peaceful, the probability of a political fall-out is high in the two month outlook, which raises risk of electoral unrest and associated commercial disruption.
Mounting concerns over Africa’s debt sustainability are frustrating key investment decisions and infrastructure financing. In this special report EXX Africa identifies the countries in best and worst position to attract further debt.
Four former presidents will dominate the upcoming elections, while their respective political vehicles are seeking to curry favour with the military and to create political alliances with rivals, although the threat of fresh civil unrest remains ever present.
The current relative political stability is likely to be heavily tested ahead of the November elections as two former presidents gear up to challenge the incumbent, although the probability of a military intervention is mitigated by regional scrutiny of the vote lead-in.
In accordance with a court ruling, the Malagasy president has formed a unity government, which is aimed at preventing a military intervention and dividing the political opposition ahead of elections later this year.
Rival political groups are struggling to form a consensus government as ordered by the country’s highest court, while lack of agreement over when to hold elections will further intensify risk of violent unrest.
As foreign currency debt issuance reaches a new record so far this year, there are growing concerns over debt servicing sustainability, while several African economies are at serious risk of debt distress.
The government’s election laws have been defeated in the courts, which has exposed it to further pressure from the political opposition and labour unions, while the loyalty of security forces is not assured.
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