As Uganda’s long-time president manoeuvres into position to extend his tenure, the country’s political outlook is shaken by a crackdown on the opposition and an escalating trade dispute with Rwanda that threatens to disturb regional commerce and security, while also casting concern over Uganda’s economic trajectory.
The probability of an opposition victory in upcoming elections is increasing, which raises the risk of corruption probes and contract renegotiations after the polls. However, the incumbent will use new legislation and control over security forces to push back against the opposition’s momentum, thus raising the risk of political violence in coming months.
Burkina Faso has experienced an alarming increase in the geographic spread, tempo, and complexity of attacks by Islamist militants in the past year. This trajectory of violence, in a country which appeared only five years ago to be insulated from wider regional security issues, is concerning, as the local political and security apparatus seem ill-equipped to counter the threat.
The potential resolution of a years-long dispute over the world’s largest untapped iron ore resource does not immediately signal its development due to the project’s massive infrastructure costs. Despite a booming bauxite and gold sector, populist sentiment ahead of the 2020 elections will increase risk of contract frustration and industrial action.
Facing the most significant outbreak of unrest in almost a decade, the Algerian government is under pressure to part ways with its long-standing president. In light of the enduring state of political paralysis and with no credible opposition as an alternative, we assess the possible trajectory of the protest movement and the potential for violent escalation.
A possibly imminent offensive by eastern forces to capture Tripoli would be strategically perilous, diplomatically unwise, and financially unaffordable. The opposing sides are more likely to begin contentious talks on a transition government rather than risk another drawn-out civil war.
The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an enigmatic and insular Islamic militant group in the eastern DRC, has risen in prominence with civilian massacres and large-scale attacks on government troops and UN peacekeepers in Beni territory since 2016. With the group now infamously known as the deadliest armed group in the country, following the deaths of over 200 people in 2018, we explore the threat to commercial operations in the region.
Despite securing a comfortable re-election victory in last month’s elections, President Macky Sall’s perceived authoritarian streak will drive continued risk of unrest in his second term. However, the economic outlook and prospect for further business-minded reform remains bright, at least for now.
Ten days of intensifying protests in Algeria’s urban centres have rattled the country’s elite and thwarted carefully calibrated political transition plans. Although the protests remain unorganised and leaderless, there are several indicators that might lead to escalation ahead of and following the April elections.
President Buhari’s victory in last week’s presidential elections will be challenged in the courts. Various indicators suggest worse outbreaks of violence are to come across security hotspots in coming weeks, with further unrest expected ahead of upcoming gubernatorial elections.
- EXX Africa participated at the Bonds, Loans & Sukuk – Africa conference last week in Cape Town.
- UGANDA: TRADE DISPUTE AND OPPOSITION TRIAL DESTABILISE OUTLOOK TOWARDS 2021 ELECTIONS
- MALAWI: OPPOSITION GAINS FRESH MOMENTUM AHEAD OF MAY ELECTIONS
- BURKINA FASO: COUNTERING THE SPREAD OF ISLAMIST MILITANCY
- GHANA: AFTER THE IMF… MORE DEBT