As the government steps up intimidation of its LGBT community, it risks the suspension of donor aid and a wider international backlash, which may well play into the president’s hands as he seeks to target foreign investments.
NGOs and media will face an increasingly restrictive operating environment and risk hefty punitive fines in case of violations of new regulations, while such measures are likely to be extended to key export sectors such as mining.
Islamist militants continue to pose a serious threat to French-aligned, state, and mining interests, while certain groups increasingly have the capability to execute complex attacks against fortified targets in southern regions and cities.
A peace deal to end the five year civil war remains prone to ceasefire violations and disputes over implementation, while the return of rebel leaders to government is likely to raise risk of spontaneous outbreaks of fighting in the capital.
Counter-terrorism strategies by security forces are hardening Islamist militant groups’ resolve and pushing insurgents to collaborate on tactics; as a result, kidnap risks for expatriates are steadily rising.
An escalation of violence is likely in the pre-election period in the Anglophone Southwest and Northwest regions, while road closures, kidnap threats, and robberies will pose a heightened risk in afflicted locations.
In the one-month outlook, further demonstrations and retaliatory violence are likely leading up to trials of opposition leaders, while the risk of diplomatic sanctions would increase in case of broader restrictions on NGOs.
The low capability of recent attempted terrorist attacks on Cairo’s diplomatic and government assets indicate the curtailed threat of local militant groups, although an expected drawdown of counter-terrorism offensives could provide terrorism groups the opportunity to recuperate.
Commercial and humanitarian interests face an ever increasing risk of banditry from both militant groups and criminal organisations, especially outside of the capital where government security forces hold little sway.
Mali’s scandal-tainted government is seeking re-election by counting on low voter interest and fear of insurgent attacks; the elections were marred by militant attacks and disruptions in various restive regions.
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