The ongoing contract frustration experienced by telecoms firm MTN in Nigeria and the threat of punitive action against banks such as HSBC are highly indicative of intensifying populist and politically motivated rhetoric against foreign investors ahead of next year’s elections.
The redeployment of regional military assets away from the Lake Chad basin has opened an opportunity for Islamist militants to consolidate and prepare a new offensive in northeast Nigeria ahead of the 2019 elections.
Critical oil industry reform has once again become stuck in parliamentary processes, while political will to implement the various governance, licensing, and fiscal policy reforms is waning ahead of the 2019 elections.
Following the defections of influential lawmakers and governors to the opposition, President Buhari is likely to ramp up corruption prosecutions to strengthen his anti-graft image, yet he faces political turf wars and may be running out of time ahead of party primaries and next year’s elections.
The influential senate president has launched high-profile defections of senators and lawmakers to the opposition, which will undermine President Buhari’s re-election prospects but certainly not diminish his political ambitions.
As the governing party splits and the opposition unites, the president’s re-election chances take a serious knock; yet in the absence of a viable opposition candidate with broad political support, the incumbent remains the favourite.
Increased fighting in Middle Belt states has inflamed ethno-religious rivalries and widened political divisions ahead of next year’s elections, while communal violence is increasingly likely to spread to the capital Abuja.
A reported security warning against Nigerian commercial aviation assets is unlikely to have been issued in response to specific threat intelligence and appropriate security measures should mitigate risk of an attack.
The governing party threatens to impeach President Buhari in response to a series of politically motivated actions against his rivals. Further high profile defections are expected over coming weeks.
As foreign currency debt issuance reaches a new record so far this year, there are growing concerns over debt servicing sustainability, while several African economies are at serious risk of debt distress.
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