Investors have a growing appetite for Nigerian debt as the country ramps up foreign borrowing. We assess key indicators that will determine the debt outlook, including currency policy, local banking sector strength, and the post-elections economic climate.
Both presidential campaigns are focussing on building broad-based local political coalitions to ensure victory in 2019, yet slowing investment and frustration of foreign investments are hampering the economic recovery and imperilling the local banking sector.
Mounting concerns over Africa’s debt sustainability are frustrating key investment decisions and infrastructure financing. In this special report EXX Africa identifies the countries in best and worst position to attract further debt.
A new investigation by lawmakers into suspected embezzlement of gasoline subsidies is the latest in a series of high profile corruption probes that will draw a cloud over the Nigerian election campaign and frustrate foreign business interest.
In response to a unified opposition’s pro-business platform ahead of the February 2019 elections, the embattled incumbent is expected to leverage a strong anti-corruption mandate as an electioneering tool, posing fresh contract risks to investors in key sectors and further uncertainty for oil sector reform.
The ongoing contract frustration experienced by telecoms firm MTN in Nigeria and the threat of punitive action against banks such as HSBC are highly indicative of intensifying populist and politically motivated rhetoric against foreign investors ahead of next year’s elections.
The redeployment of regional military assets away from the Lake Chad basin has opened an opportunity for Islamist militants to consolidate and prepare a new offensive in northeast Nigeria ahead of the 2019 elections.
Critical oil industry reform has once again become stuck in parliamentary processes, while political will to implement the various governance, licensing, and fiscal policy reforms is waning ahead of the 2019 elections.
Following the defections of influential lawmakers and governors to the opposition, President Buhari is likely to ramp up corruption prosecutions to strengthen his anti-graft image, yet he faces political turf wars and may be running out of time ahead of party primaries and next year’s elections.
The influential senate president has launched high-profile defections of senators and lawmakers to the opposition, which will undermine President Buhari’s re-election prospects but certainly not diminish his political ambitions.
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