The condition of President Bongo remains clouded in uncertainty, even though a political transition is likely to be underway which will ensure economic stability, yet much-needed reforms to the oil sector are likely to be stalled.
The post-election climate has been brightened by a large hydropower investment and a positive economic outlook; however, the threat of insurgency, fragile debt sustainability, and lack of political succession planning will remain longer term threats to stability.
Both presidential campaigns are focussing on building broad-based local political coalitions to ensure victory in 2019, yet slowing investment and frustration of foreign investments are hampering the economic recovery and imperilling the local banking sector.
Ahead of next year’s elections, the government will maintain the political status quo and boost welfare spending in order to curb any outbreaks of unrest; yet falling foreign exchange reserves will determine longer term succession scenarios and pose a nascent threat to repayment schedules as debt balloons.
Despite concerns over the pace of incremental reforms to the security sector and progress on privatisations of state-owned companies, the new government remains committed to making comprehensive political changes.
President Magufuli’s nationalist economic stance affects every sector in Tanzania’s economy, which is posing a serious threat to longer-term investment and growth just as the government seeks to issue more debt.
Excessive public debt and mounting political pressures risk undermining Gambia’s ongoing transition and the government’s reform agenda, although a substantial foreign aid endowment has provided a much-needed windfall.
Any dispute over the results of the municipal elections is unlikely to permanently derail the peace process with the armed opposition, while key investment processes are unlikely to face significant risk of disruption as a result of political unrest.
A new investigation by lawmakers into suspected embezzlement of gasoline subsidies is the latest in a series of high profile corruption probes that will draw a cloud over the Nigerian election campaign and frustrate foreign business interest.
In response to a unified opposition’s pro-business platform ahead of the February 2019 elections, the embattled incumbent is expected to leverage a strong anti-corruption mandate as an electioneering tool, posing fresh contract risks to investors in key sectors and further uncertainty for oil sector reform.
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