President Ramaphosa’s ANC is set to reverse a trend of electoral decline at general elections in three weeks, despite the party’s record of entrenched corruption, economic mismanagement, and political in-fighting. In this special report, we look beyond those elections and forecast the key drivers of political, security, and economic risk for Africa’s most developed economy in the post-elections climate.
The detention of Vodacom executives in Tanzania fits into the government’s broader crackdown on the telecoms and media sectors, as well as its restriction of political freedoms. While some donors will cut foreign aid, some European countries are seeking participation in the country’s massive industrial and infrastructure projects, including the development of the LNG sector.
Despite his touted anti-corruption agenda, President Cyril Ramaphosa is facing his own graft allegations, while his party’s election list includes many figures tainted by the ‘state capture’ era. The continued influence of his predecessor’s political faction may weaken Ramaphosa’s ability to select his own cabinet after next month’s elections and could impact ratings reviews by credit agencies.
Algeria’s military has forced the resignation of the president and will seek a continuation of its power base following elections due by the end of June. The army’s ability to negotiate a new political agreement with the opposition and protest leaders will be key in its success to ensure stability and mitigate further commercial disruption.
The long term impact of last month’s cyclone will be felt in terms of the looming humanitarian disaster and new bottlenecks on supply chain networks across the affected region. Mozambique may postpone its scheduled general elections this year, although a return of donor and IMF aid should support an economic recovery.
While the defeated opposition seeks a re-run of the presidential vote and gears up for supplementary state elections, the government of President Buhari is moving ahead with pro-growth economic policies and planning asset sell-offs in the oil sector to finance its gaping budget deficit.
After five weeks of mass demonstrations, the embattled political elite is showing no signs of giving into the protestors’ demands. The next five weeks will prove crucial in determining Algeria’s political, security, and economic outlook for years to come. EXX Africa assesses the main pathways on how the crisis is likely to unfold and what this means for foreign investments and key sectors.
The start of the rainy season augurs a healthy crop for the world’s top cocoa producer and the country’s economic trajectory is set to remain stable at least in the one-year outlook. But political tremors risk shaking up Cote d’Ivoire’s relative stability that has remained intact since the 2011 civil war.
Less than two months out from hotly contested elections, South Africa faces some of its worst power outages in years with dire implications for the economic recovery. President Ramaphosa is walking a political tightrope to implement his power sector reform plan while trying not to alienate labour allies.
As Uganda’s long-time president manoeuvres into position to extend his tenure, the country’s political outlook is shaken by a crackdown on the opposition and an escalating trade dispute with Rwanda that threatens to disturb regional commerce and security, while also casting concern over Uganda’s economic trajectory.
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- EXX Africa director Robert Besseling moderated a panel on Africa’s Capital Markets at the Invest Africa Annual Debate 2019
- EXX Africa analysis is quoted in Bloomberg on Angola oil sector reforms.
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