Four months into his presidency, Félix Tshisekedi has at last agreed to appoint a prime minister loyal to his predecessor and main political rival Joseph Kabila. As a result, the incoming government will ensure that all key policy decisions will remain with Kabila. But Tshisekedi seems to have secured the return from exile of one of Congo’s most dynamic and powerful opposition leaders whose political support will be crucial to build up his own political constituency. If the power-sharing agreement holds, Congo’s thriving mining sector is set to improve the country’s economic outlook.
Zimbabwe’s finance minister seems to be in complete denial on the economic crisis facing the country, including the threat of hyperinflation, a collapsing power supply, and ongoing cash shortages. The government is offering yet another economic rebasing as a solution, which will do little to allay investor concerns or to unblock a proposed debt deal with creditors. The prospect of fresh protests and another military intervention is fast approaching.
Cyril Ramaphosa has achieved a reversal of his party’s electoral decline in May’s elections. In fact, he faced a greater challenge from rivals within his own party than from South Africa’s weak political opposition. His next challenge will be to balance fractious interests in the next cabinet to avoid a permanent party split, while building a platform for restructuring cash-strapped state-owned enterprises that could trigger a backlash from labour unions and other allies. Much of the ANC’s actual election manifesto will be shelved to ensure fiscal discipline.
Failing state interventionist policies in the economy are pushing down economic projections, although Tanzania’s government remains in denial on the negative impact of its populist initiatives. Our latest briefing examines the disastrous effects of government actions in the agricultural sector, harming Tanzania’s mainstay economic base and key export crops.
In an endorsement of pro-market reforms and liberalising policies, Botswana’s long-time ruling party has nominated President Masisi as its presidential candidate for the October elections. However, a murky political rivalry still threatens to split the party, while Botswana’s slowing economy and growing inequality may provide opposition impetus and thus undermine Masisi’s re-election.
President Ramaphosa’s ANC is set to reverse a trend of electoral decline at general elections in three weeks, despite the party’s record of entrenched corruption, economic mismanagement, and political in-fighting. In this special report, we look beyond those elections and forecast the key drivers of political, security, and economic risk for Africa’s most developed economy in the post-elections climate.
The detention of Vodacom executives in Tanzania fits into the government’s broader crackdown on the telecoms and media sectors, as well as its restriction of political freedoms. While some donors will cut foreign aid, some European countries are seeking participation in the country’s massive industrial and infrastructure projects, including the development of the LNG sector.
The long term impact of last month’s cyclone will be felt in terms of the looming humanitarian disaster and new bottlenecks on supply chain networks across the affected region. Mozambique may postpone its scheduled general elections this year, although a return of donor and IMF aid should support an economic recovery.
As the government considers development of LNG import infrastructure, we highlight some key challenges facing Ghana’s petroleum and gas import business, including political intervention and payment delays, as well as the risk of contract frustration as a new wave of local content regulation is being proposed.
The start of the rainy season augurs a healthy crop for the world’s top cocoa producer and the country’s economic trajectory is set to remain stable at least in the one-year outlook. But political tremors risk shaking up Cote d’Ivoire’s relative stability that has remained intact since the 2011 civil war.
- CAMEROON: BUOYANT ECONOMY DESPITE SECURITY THREATS
- LIBERIA: GOVERNMENT COMES UNDER MOUNTING PRESSURE AS ECONOMY FALTERS
- DRC: A TALE OF TWO PRESIDENTS
- EGYPT: DESPITE SECURITY CONCERNS, THE OVERALL RISK OUTLOOK IS REMARKABLY OPTIMISTIC
- EXX Africa analysis on Angola’s Sonangol is cited by the Centre for African Journalists newswire