Tanzanian and Ugandan pressure to postpone and renegotiate a trade agreement with the European Union is prevailing, causing Kenya to soon lose its preferential access to EU markets and necessitating a set of bilateral trade treaties.
Despite gaining another landslide electoral victory, Rwanda’s president will face growing threats to political stability from political rivals over the next few years, while strained foreign relations will imperil foreign aid and development projects in the nascent mining sector and services industries.
A trade dispute with South Africa over US chicken imports last year and an ongoing disagreement between the US and East African countries over used clothing imports indicate that some African countries are increasingly willing to forego privileged US market access, while the US government may move to repeal multilateral trade terms in favour of bilateral deals with selected African countries.
EXX Africa publishes a special report on the outlook for the Rwandan elections in August, including an assessment on the prospect for violence and a post-election view on political stability, foreign donor relations, and investment opportunity. Despite Rwanda’s steady economic growth, alienation from the political process increasingly risks a broader deterioration in the country’s outlook.
While it is still too early to assess the longer term implications of a Trump presidency on Africa, trade agreements such as AGOA and security cooperation are unlikely to be significantly affected, yet various indicators point to risk of even slower African economic growth due to a stronger dollar and pledges to cut US foreign aid commitments.
Tanzanian and Ugandan pressure to postpone and renegotiate a trade agreement with the European Union has prevailed, causing Kenya to lose its preferential access to EU markets from 1 October.
Kenya stands to lose its preferential access to the EU single market by 1 October as other East African Community members hold up Economic Partnership Agreement negotiations over ‘Brexit’ fears, however Kenya is still likely to eventually negotiate a favourable bilateral agreement with the UK.
The rise of digital financial services in Africa will prove to be an exciting growth opportunity, although will be constrained to key consumer markets and face significant regulatory hurdles.
From 2017, the Rwandan banking sector will have to comply with higher capital requirements that will bring in line Rwanda’s capital guidelines with those already imposed in Kenya to improve transparency.
- EXX Africa director Robert Besseling moderated a panel on Africa’s commodity rollercoaster at GTR Commodities in Geneva hosted by Global Trade Review (GTR)
- SOUTH SUDAN: DEBT BURDEN AND CORRUPTION MAY DISSUADE FRESH FOREIGN INVESTMENT
- TUNISIA: MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES SEEK TO MITIGATE IMPACT OF UPSET ELECTORAL DEFEAT
- ZAMBIA: CHINA SEEKS MINING ASSETS AS COLLATERAL TO PROTECT AGAINST LOOMING DEFAULT
- SPECIAL REPORT: SHOCK TO GLOBAL OIL PRICES WILL IMPACT AFRICAN PRODUCERS AND IMPORTERS