Improving relations with neighbouring Sudan and a nascent recovery in the all-important oil sector are motivating rival parties in South Sudan’s long-running civil war to seek to implement the 2018 peace deal and to form a transitional government. However, foreign investors may be dissuaded from committing to new projects due to continued insecurity, widespread corruption, and potential repayment issues as pre-export oil financing deals increase the debt burden.
A shock to global oil prices leaves many African markets unprepared for more expensive import bills, while some crude producers may struggle to reap the benefits of higher oil export revenues. EXX Africa assesses the risk outlook for Africa’s largest oil producers and the continent’s main fuel importers.
The government will capitalise on Robert Mugabe’s legacy to consolidate its authority and establish further control over patronage networks in the banking and agricultural sectors. However, it is failing to make headway on an economic recovery, taming inflation, and restoring power supply. The opposition is set to resume protests and strikes in coming weeks, raising the risk of a complete economic shut-down. Foreign partners, even benevolent ones, will struggle to push through any form of debt relief and a mooted bailout as the crisis deepens.
The suspension of work on the Uganda to Tanzania crude pipeline is a major setback for the development of the Lake Albert oil sector and is likely to push back the deadline for commercial production even further. EXX Africa assesses the wider risk outlook for the Ugandan oil sector and the factors that could cause further delay to project completion.
The latest outbreak of anti-immigrant violence in South Africa has been unusual only because of its timing coinciding with a major investment conference and the potential political motivations behind the attacks on foreigners. EXX Africa investigates the political and economic drivers of such violence, as well as the commercial impact of retaliatory action against South African interests elsewhere in Africa.
Following a two week ban on protests, political demonstrations are set to resume across major cities. Security forces will seek to protect border crossings and airports from blockades, although a spike in retaliatory attacks, intimidation tactics, and political assassinations may increase the prospect of violence that would threaten relations with donors and the IMF. Optimistic economic projections may also be thwarted by commercial disruption and weak tobacco sales.
The presidential election remains too close to call as establishment parties are set to rally behind a unity candidate in the second round to fend off a challenge from emerging populist candidates. Low voter interest in the presidential contest indicates that the real political battle will focus on the parliamentary vote in October. Whoever wins the elections, the current IMF programme is likely to remain in place. Benefits from the loan programme are starting to show as inflation slows and the government issues new bonds to finance its budget deficit.
Algeria’s ruling general is either preparing to install himself as a strongman-president of an Egyptian-inspired securocratic state or he is seeking to transition political power to a civilian administration that will protect the military’s interests. EXX Africa investigates the probability and implications of both scenarios.
With 54 countries and a continental coastline of 30,500 km that spans the Mediterranean sea in the north, the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in the northeast, the Indian Ocean in the east, and the Atlantic Ocean in the west, Africa’s borders are both numerous and vulnerable. EXX Africa delves into the primary threat actors taking advantage of these vulnerabilities to further their own objectives across the continent. The report will be submitted the United Nations General Assembly this month and is pre-released to our clients ahead of the publication.
The pope’s visit to Mozambique will shine the spotlight on peace, climate change, and perhaps even the country’s debt restructuring process. But the debate is likely to almost ignore the Islamist insurgency in the gas-rich north where various new trends can be spotted in the militant’s tactics and security forces’ counterinsurgency strategy, including the arrival of privately contracted attack helicopters that may further strain relations with foreign donors.
- EXX Africa director Robert Besseling moderated a panel on Africa’s commodity rollercoaster at GTR Commodities in Geneva hosted by Global Trade Review (GTR)
- SOUTH SUDAN: DEBT BURDEN AND CORRUPTION MAY DISSUADE FRESH FOREIGN INVESTMENT
- TUNISIA: MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES SEEK TO MITIGATE IMPACT OF UPSET ELECTORAL DEFEAT
- ZAMBIA: CHINA SEEKS MINING ASSETS AS COLLATERAL TO PROTECT AGAINST LOOMING DEFAULT
- SPECIAL REPORT: SHOCK TO GLOBAL OIL PRICES WILL IMPACT AFRICAN PRODUCERS AND IMPORTERS