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Country Risk Outlook

Current risk rating by default at highest risk score.

RISK RATING SCALE
8.0 – 10
6 – 7.9
4.0 – 5.9
2.0 – 3.9
0.0 – 1.9
Severe
High
Elevated
Moderate
Low

Latest Special Reports

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Latest Headline Analysis

The return to Niger of a high-profile opposition leader threatens to derail the government’s carefully stage-managed political transition, although there is little risk that political instability or fresh outbreaks of […]
The peaceful conclusion of the Sidama referendum and the formation of a new governing political coalition last month cover up the extent of Ethiopia’s deep-seated ethnic and sectarian divisions that […]
Another outbreak of violence in Tunisia’s restive interior is likely to motivate the country’s new but fractured parliament to throw its support behind an incoming technocratic government. Despite an improving […]
International pressure to implement South Sudan’s ceasefire and unity government has subsided as the US withdraws its ambassador. However, a renewal of the oil export agreement with Sudan will allow […]
An emerging political dispute between Mauritania’s current and former presidents raises the risk of political instability in the country, although this trend is at least for now unlikely to impact […]
The prospect of protracted hyperinflation and the perception of rampant state corruption will trigger more protests and strike action over coming months, especially as public sector employees go unpaid. In […]
The new government will maintain its economic diversification agenda and promote Mauritius’ financial hub status with a very healthy economic outlook. In order to distract from perceptions of corruption and […]
A lacklustre economy, slow progress on land reform, and mounting evidence of state corruption will narrow the government’s margin of victory at 27 November polls and embarrass the country’s president. […]
The finance ministry and central bank are making concerted efforts to stabilise the economy and to improve the rapport with the IMF after three years of strained relations. However, President […]
Near daily demonstrations are expected over the next three weeks ahead of presidential elections as authorities crack down on protest organisers. The military seems determined to remain in power as […]

Latest Special Features

The upcoming presidential run-off election in Guinea-Bissau pits two very divergent political systems against each other, while the prospect of a military intervention remains high. Regional countries will closely monitor […]
Ethiopia’s construction of a hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile has long-stimulated tensions with Egypt and Sudan over control of water resources in the Nile valley with the prospect of […]
Desperately searching for new funds to finance its record 2020 budget, Nigeria’s government will seek quick cash pay-out settlements from international oil companies by claiming massive tax and royalty arrears […]
The Chinese government is reassessing its role in landmark infrastructure projects in Africa due to concerns over commercial viability, while some African governments themselves are rejecting Chinese financing conditions. This […]
An array of foreign investors is lining up to inject billions of dollars into Ethiopia’s much-vaunted telecoms sector, while Chinese funding is set to support the indebted state telecoms company. […]
Although Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi played little more than a symbolic role within Islamic State affiliate groups in Africa, his death is likely to achieve the undesired effect of increasing […]
Zambia’s finance minister is taking firm steps to stabilise the economy and to resume negotiations with the IMF on a credit facility. However, he will face political pressure to maintain […]
Many sub-Saharan African countries have set ambitious targets around the incorporation of renewable energy in their power mix over the next decade. EXXAfrica’s latest briefing explores the opportunities and challenges […]
The main opposition’s rejection of election results is based on credible evidence of voter intimidation and ballot manipulation which EXXAfrica flagged three months ago. However, the results are unlikely to […]
EXXAfrica unpacks the data and trends behind the main insurance policies available to commercial entities in South Africa, debunking popular opinions around strikes and terrorism in particular. Read the PDF […]

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EXX  AFRICA is a specialist intelligence company that delivers accurate, decision-ready, and commercially relevant forecasts on African security, political, and economic risk to a wide-ranging number of clients.

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