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President Omar al-Bashir will almost certainly seek re-election in 2020, providing further scope for the withdrawal of international sanctions, although this risks disrupting ongoing peace agreements with non-state groups and […]
The government has received fresh financial assistance from the IMF, which will support debt servicing and boost the flagging economy; yet, requisite austerity measures and subsidy cuts threaten protests and […]
South African and Russian firms are making initial overtures to play a role in the rebuilding of the war-ravaged oil economy, which remains dominated by Asian firms; yet ceasefire violations […]
Although the reported killing of a high profile Islamist militant leader will make a significant operational blow to the jihadist insurgency, an escalation in retaliatory violence is likely in coming […]
The month of November has seen an uptick in insurgent attacks in northern Mozambique with mounting evidence of transnational ties and a more recent expansion to other provinces, yet the […]
The suspension of licenses for NGOs operating in Senegal is likely to trigger a coordinated response by activist groups and opposition parties in the form of protests and boycotts ahead […]
Despite a US Embassy security message warning of a threat of terrorism against US government facilities in Kinshasa, there are no potential groups that could be assessed as having the […]
The opposition will again step up disruptive protests in Lomé ahead of next month’s elections, yet the unrest is unlikely to frustrate fiscal consolidation measures and a military intervention remains […]
Mining and NGO interests in eastern provinces already face a high baseline threat from armed militant attacks, yet there is no evidence suggesting that insurgent groups are expanding their operational […]
Despite relatively peaceful and well-organised first round elections, the risk of violence and commercial disruption will spike towards the run-off presidential vote in December between two long-time political foes.

Latest Special Features

President Edgar Lungu is gearing up his strategy to remain in office, which will consist of centralising political authority, repressing his critics, and overspending on politically motivated infrastructure and defence […]
The start of politicking for the next set of elections has the potential to impact political stability and the country’s policy agenda. A split in the governing coalition is becoming […]
Uganda’s highly-anticipated start of commercial oil production will again be delayed, from 2020 to 2021, yet various factors may extend that timeline even further due to disputes between private sector […]
A preliminary agreement on debt restructuring has been reached with Mozambique’s creditors leveraging future gas revenues as collateral, thus paving the way for an urgent recovery of the local economy, […]
The new government marks its one-year anniversary facing serious obstacles to its economic reform agenda, as well as intensifying political rivalries, which threaten to undermine the prospect of international financing […]
The management of Zimbabwe’s economic and monetary policy is becoming the next battleground for rival factions in the ruling party, with allegations that a recent spike in inflation has been […]
While the risk of a default remains relatively low into 2019, lack of progress on fiscal consolidation and slow-paced negotiations with the IMF pose a real threat of a sudden […]
Investors have a growing appetite for Nigerian debt as the country ramps up foreign borrowing. We assess key indicators that will determine the debt outlook, including currency policy, local banking […]
The post-election climate has been brightened by a large hydropower investment and a positive economic outlook; however, the threat of insurgency, fragile debt sustainability, and lack of political succession planning […]
The government is failing to accomplish economic growth and fiscal consolidation, yet the prospect of post-electoral policy changes and broad institutional reform should be sufficient to stave off another credit […]

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