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Investor panic over Zambia’s debt situation is pushing the government towards an urgent agreement with the IMF, while political momentum is shifting against President Lungu who is being blamed for […]
A security operation in Bangui’s volatile PK5 area has triggered violent protests from local residents, while further security actions will raise risk of armed retaliatory attacks targeting strategic facilities.
Growing international interest in Libya and its recovering oil sector are tentatively steering the warring factions towards a political agreement to hold elections later this year, although there remain serious […]
The lifting of the suspension of Russian commercial air travel to and from Egypt follows a significant increase in civil aviation safety and security standards, yet the sector will remain […]
As we had previously expected, there are growing indications that Congo’s much-anticipated elections will take place this year, yet the government is obscuring whether President Kabila will seek another term.
Ongoing fuel shortages have already catalysed minor outbreaks of civil unrest and intercommunal violence, yet both the scale and intensity of the unrest could still intensify if the shortages are […]
ECOWAS has brokered a consensus deal to the political impasse, which should lead to elections by November, yet there remain significant challenges including the prospect of civil unrest and threat […]
The president’s assertion of authority over the government, Sonangol, and the ruling party is reaching its peak, but the administration remains committed to structural reforms that are expected to boost […]
Relations between Somalia’s Qatari-backed government and the UAE deteriorate, as the government ends a troop training programme. The UAE is set to deploy mercenary fighters to support federal member states.
The former ruling party is likely to exhaust judicial options to challenge the validity of Sierra Leone’s run-off election, but outbreaks of sustained and widespread political and ethnic violence remain […]

Latest Special Features

Over the past week, concern over Zambia’s undisclosed debts and economic mismanagement has at last been publicly noted. Given the broad interest in the unfolding debt situation and various parallel […]
Rising copper prices will not be adequate to prevent a serious debt crisis in Zambia as long as the government continues to sign new loans, while risk of contagion to […]
After two years of systemically weakening Tanzania’s institutions, the political system has effectively regressed into repressive authoritarianism, which will increasingly risk an international backlash.
Relative political stability and a tentative economic recovery herald a new dawn for Egypt, especially as fresh investment is set to flow into privatised industries, state-led mega-projects, and the booming […]
The Tigray-dominated military Command Post will remain in charge of Ethiopia’s government at least in the three-month outlook, which mitigates the threat of contract alteration but risks stoking further ethnic […]
While recent US sanctions on South Sudan’s oil sector are a strong vote of no confidence in the struggling peace process, a regional initiative offers the first tentative chance for […]
The government will rely on its investment grade credit rating and improving relationships with international partners to boost foreign investment and trade flows, yet there remain structural challenges that may […]
Growing regional rivalries in the Horn are frustrating commercial interests, especially port operations and marine freight agreements in Somalia and Djibouti, with broader spill-over effects for the region.
A domestically funded and orchestrated Islamist insurgency is now present in at least three Tanzanian districts and has the potential to quickly spread across coastal and western regions, as well […]
Land reform has become highly politically motivated and a push towards more expropriatory policies will raise concerns over potential nationalisation of banks and further tax hikes ahead of the 2019 […]

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