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Bomb threats and possible hoaxes are plaguing South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal Province; despite growing fears of linkages to organised crime or sectarian tensions between Muslim communities, there are currently no indicators […]
The government is likely to concede on the armed opposition’s key demand of political decentralisation, which would allow for a staggered demobilisation of former rebel fighters and bodes well ahead […]
Political uncertainty over the succession, high-profile corruption probes, and wide-ranging purges of critics ahead of next year’s elections do not bode well for Algeria’s economic recovery and the sustainability of […]
Broad resistance to a fuel price hike has triggered protests and strike action across sectors in the past few weeks; the politicisation of the dispute will raise the risk of […]
Resistance to a constitutional referendum scheduled for 30 July is intensifying, indicating heightened risk of civil unrest and political violence, while a regional diplomatic backlash is expected in case of […]
Levels of violence in Bangui and outside of the capital continue to spike in terms of frequency and scale, while fighting is motivated less by ethno-religious frictions and more by […]
The formation of a larger and more inclusive cabinet is meant to hold together the current shaky coalition and to prevent further outbreaks of violence, although there is no indication […]
Ahead of Mali’s elections, pressure is mounting to deploy the G5 Sahel regional force to mitigate risk of militant attacks, yet the force remains under-funded and is riven by leadership […]
Egypt’s new government is unlikely to steer the economic recovery off course, although it is seeking to centralise more political authority within the Presidency and to dilute the influence of […]
Intensifying violence between elements aligned to the Somaliland and Puntland semi-autonomous regions indicates growing risk of full-blown conflict that would threaten to embroil parts of northern Somalia.

Latest Special Features

With less than two weeks to go until highly anticipated elections, the opposition is increasing pressure on the electoral commission and there are frequent reports of violence in the countryside, […]
A lasting peace agreement would improve Ethiopia’s access to ports and boost forex revenues, while Eritrea’s economy would recover as UN sanctions are dropped; yet such scenarios are unlikely as […]
The government has announced a new anti-graft initiative in response to high-profile corruption scandals, yet it is unlikely to be effective as late payments increasingly impact state contractors and expand […]
As the governing party splits and the opposition unites, the president’s re-election chances take a serious knock; yet in the absence of a viable opposition candidate with broad political support, […]
Falling copper prices are adding to Zambia’s economic woes, while the government is making fresh strides towards fiscal prudence and is floating austerity measures to rein in a mounting debt […]
A merger between the two main political parties has effectively failed, which may force their respective leaders to challenge each other at elections in 2020, thus undermining political stability and […]
The insurgency in northern Mozambique is taking on an increasingly ethnic undertone and there is little evidence to suggest that militants are actively targeting foreign commercial assets. The security response […]
Ahead of a crucial judicial decision on his eligibility for a third term, Zambia’s president seeks to placate the opposition to sway concerned donors, while co-opting some of his detractors […]
A new framework agreement on establishing peace does not include many of the actors in South Sudan’s conflict and is mostly aimed at mitigating mounting international pressure through sanctions on […]
Despite a booming economy, the Egyptian government remains concerned that a looming inflation surge and the socio-economic impact of its IMF-endorsed austerity programme will trigger fresh unrest.

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