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Latest Headline Analysis

Supporters of the opposition will start to mobilise to pressure the electoral commission to accept their demands for reform ahead of the December elections, yet even if the various fragmented […]
An escalation of violence is likely in the pre-election period in the Anglophone Southwest and Northwest regions, while road closures, kidnap threats, and robberies will pose a heightened risk in […]
A proposed delay to legislative elections seems engineered to favour the president and allied opposition, while harming the ruling party in parliament; international stakeholders will push for a compromise settlement […]
In the one-month outlook, further demonstrations and retaliatory violence are likely leading up to trials of opposition leaders, while the risk of diplomatic sanctions would increase in case of broader […]
The redeployment of regional military assets away from the Lake Chad basin has opened an opportunity for Islamist militants to consolidate and prepare a new offensive in northeast Nigeria ahead […]
Desperately searching for fresh funds to service its mounting debt burden, the cash-strapped government has stopped paying public salaries and repaying VAT rebates to mining firms, while offering state assets […]
The low capability of recent attempted terrorist attacks on Cairo’s diplomatic and government assets indicate the curtailed threat of local militant groups, although an expected drawdown of counter-terrorism offensives could […]
The possibility of intervention by other militant groups in Tripoli’s ongoing security crisis risks escalating the conflict and establishing new flashpoints, including militant-secured areas of strategic significance such as Mitiga […]
The exclusion of high profile candidates from upcoming municipal elections are triggering divisive defections from the ruling party, driving risk of youth protests in the capital, and straining peace negotiations […]
The initiation of a counter-offensive by the Chadian army in its northern mining region of Tibesti, in addition to counter-measures being undertaken by the Libyan National Army, is aimed at […]

Latest Special Features

In the first six months of its administration, the new government had taken a measured and pragmatic approach to pursue internal and external peace, enhanced political pluralism, and economic privatisation, […]
The ongoing contract frustration experienced by telecoms firm MTN in Nigeria and the threat of punitive action against banks such as HSBC are highly indicative of intensifying populist and politically […]
The newly elected president has consolidated his political authority through shaking up the cabinet, while he is sending a reformist message to creditors that he will prioritise growth as a […]
A booming economy and improved governance are creating fresh opportunities for project finance deals. While the economic and financial outlook is relatively strong, there are emerging concerns over political patronage […]
Acute divisions between the reformist treasury and central bank and a populist legislature over a fuel tax and interest rate cap are imperilling the extension of the IMF’s standby credit […]
The new government will seek international re-engagement, political conciliation, and economic recovery, while taking a measured approach, prioritising less disruptive policy, and personnel changes and gradually moving toward more comprehensive […]
Critical oil industry reform has once again become stuck in parliamentary processes, while political will to implement the various governance, licensing, and fiscal policy reforms is waning ahead of the […]
Incomplete data on farm attacks are facilitating the politicisation of the issue by lobby groups and political parties, even though a review of available statistics shows a downward trend in […]
One year into its administration, Angola’s new government turns to the IMF seeking a three-year extended facility that will test the boundaries of its reformist credentials and potentially boost the […]
Commercial and humanitarian interests face an ever increasing risk of banditry from both militant groups and criminal organisations, especially outside of the capital where government security forces hold little sway.

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